Can China Beat the US Back to the Moon? An Analysis of the Competing Plans

A recent surge of activity from China's space program has sparked a compelling question: could China land astronauts on the moon before NASA's Artemis program manages to return? While the US possesses immense technical capability, budgetary and scheduling challenges have opened a window of opportunity for China to potentially achieve a monumental first.

The Foundation of China's Space Ambitions

China's space program, initiated in 1970, has methodically built its capabilities over decades. Its first satellite launch made it the third nation to achieve independent orbital access. The program's evolution has been marked by significant milestones, including developing the Long March rocket family and achieving independent human spaceflight capability in 2003 with astronaut Yang Liwei.

The robotic Chang'e lunar program demonstrated increasing sophistication, progressing from orbiters to landers and recently executing the first-ever sample return mission from the far side of the moon. With the Tiangong space station now complete, China's human spaceflight effort, known as Project 921, has formally set its sights on the moon, publicly outlining its lunar architecture in July 2023 with a target landing date of 2030.

The Hardware for a Lunar Leap: Long March 10

The cornerstone of China's lunar ambition is the new Long March 10 (长征十号) rocket, an evolution of the proven Long March 5. This heavy-lift vehicle represents a significant scaling-up of capacity:

• Size: 93 meters tall with a mass of 2,200 tons at liftoff.
• First Stage: A core with seven YF-100K kerosene/liquid oxygen engines, assisted by two strap-on boosters with seven engines each.
• Payload: Designed to send 27 tons on a Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI), which is crucial for lunar missions.

A smaller variant, the Long March 10A, is also in development for crewed flights to the space station. While reusability concepts have been showcased, they are considered a secondary goal, unlikely to delay the primary lunar objective. The rocket's first test flight is currently scheduled for 2027.

The Next-Generation Crew and Lander

China is developing two new spacecraft specifically for the moon mission:

China's Two-Launch Lunar Mission Architecture

Unlike the Apollo mission's single Saturn V launch, China's plan requires two Long March 10 rockets and a lunar orbit rendezvous:

1. Lander Launch: An uncrewed Long March 10 launches the Lanyue lander to lunar orbit.
2. Crew Launch: A second Long March 10 launches the Mengzhou spacecraft with three astronauts.
3. Rendezvous and Docking: The crew vehicle docks with the lander in lunar orbit.
4. Landing: Two astronauts transfer to the lander, descend to the surface, conduct EVAs, and explore with a rover.
5. Return: The lander's ascent stage returns to orbit, docks with Mengzhou, and the crew returns to Earth.

Testing and Development Timeline

China is actively testing critical components, indicating steady progress toward its 2030 goal:

• Engine tests for the Long March 10's first stage.
• Simulated lunar gravity tests for the Lanyue lander, validating its guidance and landing systems.
• A pad abort test for the Mengzhou spacecraft in June 2024.

The path likely involves several uncrewed test flights, including a full mission rehearsal with docking and potentially an autonomous lunar landing, before attempting a crewed mission.

The Artemis Challenge: Could China Actually Win This Race?

NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the moon, but it faces significant headwinds that have delayed its timeline. The contrasting approaches highlight the race's uncertainty:

China's strategy is arguably more direct and less complex in the short term. Its 2030 target is six years after the original—and now unattainable—date for Artemis 3. While a 2028 Artemis landing is theoretically possible, continued delays could see China's methodical progress allow it to achieve a landing first.

Beyond the initial landing, China has outlined plans for an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) at the south pole, a long-term project involving several nations, indicating a sustained commitment to lunar presence.

Conclusion: A New Space Race with High Stakes

The question is no longer if humans will return to the moon, but who will get there next and how. China has a clear, well-funded plan with a realistic timeline. Its methodical testing and development suggest a high probability of success by 2030.

NASA's path, while potentially more ambitious and sustainable in the long run, is fraught with political and technical challenges that have consistently pushed its schedule to the right. The next five years will be critical. If Artemis encounters further significant delays, the world may witness China, not the United States, achieving the next "first" in human lunar exploration—a moment that would carry immense symbolic weight and redefine the future of space exploration geopolitics.