How I Lost a Billion-Dollar Idea to Facebook: Why Timing Is Everything in Startups

In 2001, I invested $47,000 and 18 months building my first startup, 6°, a private social network. Despite having a working prototype and positive feedback from friends, it failed to gain traction. Three years later, Facebook launched with a similar concept and became a global phenomenon. The key difference? Timing. My experience taught me that timing isn't just important—it's the decisive factor between success and failure. Through research and reflection, I developed a framework called the "timing trifecta" to systematically evaluate market readiness. This article breaks down that framework and how you can apply it to avoid costly mistakes.

Why Timing Trumps Everything in Business

Most entrepreneurs focus intensely on product features, funding, and team building, but often overlook timing. Bill Gross, founder of Idea Lab, studied hundreds of companies and found that timing was the number one factor determining success, even more than idea quality, team, business model, or funding. This isn't about luck; it's about patterns. Companies like Google, Ford, and Tesla weren't first movers—they were fast followers who entered the market at the right time. Being too early can be worse than being too late, as you might waste years waiting for the market to catch up.

The Timing Trifecta: A Framework to Test Market Readiness

The timing trifecta consists of three key ingredients that signal when an idea's time has come. By evaluating these, you can reduce the risk of building something the market isn't ready for.

1. Inflections: External Changes That Enable New Ideas

Inflections are external events that break old ways of doing things and create opportunities for new solutions. Common types include:

• Technology inflections: Shifts like the internet, cloud computing, or AI that make new approaches possible.
• Behavioral inflections: Events like COVID-19, which accelerated remote work adoption.

These changes must be significant enough to challenge the status quo and enable a better way of solving problems.

2. Impact: Measurable Stakes That Drive Behavior Change

An inflection alone isn't enough; it must create tangible pain or cost that forces people to switch from old habits. For example, climate change has long been an inflection, but without immediate, measurable impacts, behavior change is slow. To justify switching, the old way must become expensive, painful, or impossible, while the new solution must offer clear benefits like time savings, cost reduction, or reduced frustration.

3. Insight: Contrarian Perspectives That Reveal Opportunities

Insights are unique beliefs about why an idea will work now, often contrary to popular opinion. These can stem from:

• Market insights: Changes in customer behavior that create openings.
• Technology insights: New capabilities that weren't previously viable.
• Business model insights: Economic models that now make sense.

As Peter Thiel notes in "Zero to One," these insights are like secrets—obvious in hindsight but hard to foresee. Systematic customer interviews are a effective way to uncover them.

Case Study: Why 6° Failed and Facebook Succeeded

My product, 6°, was a private social network built on peer-to-peer technology. Here's how it scored on the timing trifecta:

In contrast, Facebook launched in 2004 with better timing:

Applying the Framework: A 5-Minute Timing Test

You can quickly evaluate your idea using these steps:

1. Inflection check: List three external changes happening now that make your idea possible or necessary.
2. Impact analysis: Identify what's becoming more expensive, painful, or impossible with the current approach. Quantify the cost, and measure the benefits of your solution.
3. Insight documentation: Document your key beliefs about why this opportunity is ripe—what others disagree with or don't see yet.

This test helps surface risks early. Remember, insights start as beliefs and must be validated through customer research to avoid blind spots.

Another Example: Steve's VR Platform for Architects

Steve is building a VR platform for architects to visualize projects. Here's how it passes the trifecta:

Conclusion: Timing Is Systematic, Not Luck

Timing can make or break a startup, but it doesn't have to be a gamble. By using the timing trifecta—evaluating inflections, impact, and insights—you can assess market readiness before investing significant resources. This approach shifts timing from luck to a disciplined, analytical process, helping you avoid the pitfall of being too early or too late. Learn from mistakes like mine with 6°, and apply these principles to increase your chances of success.