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【8月12日(火)東京株式市場】日経平均株価の終値は史上最高値更新／米中関税の一部を延期か／日本株のアンダーウエイトの解消が大幅に進む／今夜米CPI発表／米市場、9月FOMCに向けドル売り傾向か

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Nikkei Hits Historic High: Key Drivers and Market Outlook

The Nikkei 225 surged past 42,700 yen on August 12, breaking its previous record set in July 2023. This 2% gain marks the index's fifth consecutive day of growth, fueled by global policy shifts and domestic political developments.

Market Performance Highlights

Nikkei 225

Closed at 42,718 yen (+897 yen)
5-day winning streak
Surpassed July 2023 high of 42,700 yen

TOPIX Index

Record high: 3,066.37 (+42.16)
1.4% daily gain
5 consecutive growth days

Key Market Drivers

Global Policy Shifts

US-China tariff delay: 90-day extension eased trade tensions
Fed rate cut expectations: Vice Chair Philip Jefferson hinted at 3 potential rate cuts in 2024
Goldman Sachs recommends shorting USD/JPY targeting 142 before September FOMC

Technical Factors

Back-to-back gap openings create bullish "two-window" pattern
Low short-covering pressure enables sustained upward momentum
Foreign investors driving momentum trades during Tokyo sessions

Political Catalysts

LDP leadership speculation driving momentum trades
Historical precedent: Nikkei gained 4,000 yen before September 2022 leadership vote
Risk warning: Market reversal possible if leadership election gets canceled

Sector Performance Analysis

Top Performers (vs July 2023)

住友ファーマ (Sumitomo Pharma): +243% (AI-related surge)
古河電気工業 (Furukawa Electric): +340% (data center connectivity)
IHI & 川崎重工業 (Kawasaki Heavy Industries): Defense stocks rally
ベイカレント・コンサルティング (BayCurrent Consulting): Structural reform success

Underperformers (vs July 2023)

Pharma stocks: Average -50% correction
安川電機 (Yaskawa Electric): China exposure headwinds
オリンパス (Olympus): -50% (China anti-corruption impact)
Automotive: Nissan and Mazda hit by tariff effects

Global Fund Positioning Shift

Bank of America's August survey shows significant repositioning:

Japan's underweight position nearly neutralized at net -2%
Contrasts with 2023's consistent underweight stance
Room for further inflows compared to 2012-2016 Abenomics peak

US Market Warning Signals

91% of fund managers consider US stocks overvalued
Cash levels at 3.9% - historically bearish indicator
Long-term Treasury yield expectations: 34% predict declines

Critical Upcoming Events

US CPI release (Aug 12): Key input for September FOMC
September 16-17 FOMC: Market pricing in 25bp cut
LDP leadership developments: Potential market volatility trigger
Technical watch: Third gap opening ("three-window pattern") could prompt profit-taking